Sunday July 23, 2006
Mid-East combatants lack exit strategies
I haven\’t ridden a roller coaster in years. But I remember that sickening feeling in the pit of my stomach as the cars lurched over the top of a climb and rushed down into the abyss.
I have the same sort of feeling about the war in the Middle East.
In the right circumstances, that sense of your bowels turning liquid and your head exploding with sensory overload — and realizing that the scream you hear is coming out of your own mouth — might be considered exhilarating.
And perhaps, for some of the participants in the conflict that is now engulfing Lebanon, Israel, Gaza and that threatens to spread to neighbouring nations, this war is also exhilarating. This is what they\’ve been waiting for. This is Action with a capital A.
For me, it is just terrifying.
The world\’s largest shopping complex, the West Edmonton Mall, had a ride designed to take that feeling to an extreme. Instead of rolling down an incline, it cranked a gondola full of people to the top of a vertical track, and then pulled the pin. Gondola and people went into freefall.
Like the Middle East.
Except that there\’s no soft landing at the bottom.
Arcade rides have to provide an exit strategy. Somehow, the death-defying machines have to have a way of coming to a safe stop so that passengers can get off.
That\’s what I see lacking in what passes for international relations today. Specific instances blur together — Israel bombs the hell out of Hezbollah, the U.S. launches what was supposed to be a quick-and-easy regime change in Iraq, the U.N. sinks into quicksand in Afghanistan, Russia and Chechnya spiral downward…
All these conflicts share a common factor – they lack an exit strategy.
Losing face
Perhaps, given their profession, it\’s not possible for military leaders to imagine defeat. After all, who would go into war confident of losing? But no general would launch an attack without protecting his options for withdrawal.
Politicians face the possibility of defeat, every day. To survive, they learn to compromise.
But in world affairs, it seems to be all or nothing. And that attitude fails to address a new reality – the opposite of victory is no longer defeat, but humiliation.
Russia\’s ignominious retreat from Afghanistan contributed to the breakup of the mighty U.S.S.R.
The U.S. pulled out of Vietnam with its tail between its legs and went into collective depression for decades.
It\’s hard to imagine how Israel can quit pounding Lebanon without seeming to lose face. The last time Israel invaded Lebanon, it took 18 years to extricate itself.
And how many times can Israel claim to withdraw from Gaza and remain believable?
The same holds for Hezbollah. Asked about his missile attacks on Israel, a Hezbollah representative stated bluntly: “It is war!” It\’s hard to imagine how Hezbollah – or Hamas – could change its tune without losing credibility.
The uselessness of laying blame
As Ethan Bronner wrote in the New York Times, “It was not supposed to be this way.
“Just when Israelis had turned their backs on years of military occupation of Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, to international acclaim, they are again fighting in both places with no clear exit strategy.”
Bronner noted that the Palestinians of Gaza had finally gained some control over their own lives and institutions. Lebanon had earned world approval for pushing out Syrian troops, ending civil war, and becoming a model of emerging democracy for the Middle East.
“Yet after Hezbollah guerrillas crossed the border into Israel to kill and kidnap soldiers,” Bronner continued, “Lebanon finds itself again cut off from the world, its airport runways turned into craters, its port blockaded.”
It\’s almost immaterial who actually started this donnybrook. When a minor punch-up turns into a mass riot, does it help to blame the reckless fool who throws the first punch? Or the intended victim who retaliates with lethal karate moves?
The situation eerily parallels the final of the World Cup. Did the Italian taunt justify Zinedine Zidane\’s head butt? After France\’s ultimate defeat, does attaching blame make any difference?
If the Middle East conflict escalates any further, it could suck in other nations. Syria and Iran are openly hostile to Israel; Jordan and Egypt tolerate it; Saudi Arabia and Libya are anyone\’s guess.
But if Israel is seriously threatened, is it remotely likely that the U.S. would maintain a hands-off policy?
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It\’s also worth pursuing Richard Fairchild\’s United Online site. Another site worth visiting is David Keating\’s \”SeemslikeGod\” page.
Israel exists mainly because of western feelings of guilt. In an attempt to balance the horrific injustice of the Nazi Holocaust, the western nations committed another injustice. The Balfour Agreement of 1948 imposed a new state – a homeland for Jews — on the people who already occupied a country called Palestine.
That makes us, in part, provocateurs of the present crisis.
Whatever happens, we in the west cannot remain immune.
Marshall McLuhan\’s global village envisaged a world connected by communications. But today it is also connected by travel and trade. A splash anywhere in the world generates ripples that eventually wash up on our doorsteps.
We in Canada are a long way away from Lebanon. But even if the current conflict doesn\’t suck in other countries, that\’s small consolation for eight Canadians killed by Israeli shells hitting Beirut. Or for over 25,000 Canadians who registered with the Canadian embassy for emergency evacuation from the war zone.
I recall once reading a story – I think it was in one of Isaac Azimov\’s science fiction anthologies – about a man who climbed 137 steps inside a ruined tower in southern France. Darkness fell while he admired the view from the top. He started back down, feeling his way in pitch blackness. He counted the 137 stairs to the exit doorway at the bottom. But the exit wasn\’t there. He kept counting — 138… 139…140…
He kept going down.
So do we.
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Copyright © 2006 by Jim Taylor. Non-profit use in congregations and study groups permitted; all other rights reserved.
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