Sunday February 7, 2010
And the prize for gullibility goes to…
By Jim Taylor
Last Tuesday, the world’s wackiest weather forecasters were at it again. Shubenacadie Sam started the parade farthest east, out in Nova Scotia. As daylight marched westward, Sam was followed by Punxsutawney Phil, the granddaddy of rodent meteorologists, in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania. Then Wiarton Willie, in Ontario, about two hours northwest of Toronto. And then a string of at least 15 other weather experts across the continent.
All groundhogs. And, judging by their names, all males.
Not that female groundhogs would do any better. Gender has little effect on whether or not the sun happens to shine that day.
The rodents’ record is less than stellar. Punxsutawney Phil has been forecasting since February 2, 1887. His forecasts have been accurate less than 39 per cent of the time.
If a groundhog sees his shadow, tradition claims, winter will continue for another six weeks. If he doesn’t, spring is coming.
So the groundhog only has two choices – winter, or not winter. Yes or no. Heads or tails. Pure chance would yield 50 per cent accuracy. Punxsutawney Phil, in other words, is less accurate than tossing a coin.
Imprecise forecasts
Besides, the various groundhogs themselves can’t agree. Punxsutawney Phil, Dover Doug, Shubenacadie Sam, Wiarton Willie, Joe Spanish, and Malverne Mel all saw their shadow – assuming a hibernating groundhog has its eyes open at all.
Which should indicate that Ontario and the Atlantic states will suffer an extended winter.
But Staten Island Chuck, in the same area, did not see his shadow. Nor did Dunkirk Dave, also in New York, Buckeye Chuck in Marion, Ohio, or General Beauregard Lee of Snellville, Georgia.
Which suggests a rather uneven arrival of spring along the eastern seaboard.
Meanwhile, the western groundhogs universally forecast an early end to winter. Woodstock Willie in Illinois, Sun Prairie Jimmie in Wisconsin, Manitoba Merv, and Balzac Billie in Alberta, all emerged from their burrows on cloudy days.
Now, there is a faint trace of rationality behind their forecasts. Cloudy skies generally mean warmer weather in winter. Water vapour, the stuff that makes clouds, is one of the earth’s more potent greenhouse gases. The clouds trap heat beneath their canopy.
Clear skies, on the other hand, allow the earth’s heat to radiate into space.
So if a drowsy groundhog gets dragged out of his burrow and sees his shadow, it’s pretty sure there’s a cold snap in progress.
But wouldn’t you think that people could recognize that it’s cold and clear without needing a groundhog to tell them?
Obvious conclusions
In fact, I suspect that if groundhogs could speak, they would probably say something like, “It’s @#$%^& cold out here! What the &^%$#@ did you wake me up for? Put me back under my @#$%^& covers again!”
Wildlife experts say groundhogs only break their hibernation in the middle of a northern winter if they’re rutting.
If an amorous Wiarton Willie gets his willie frostbitten, you betcha he’ll head back into his burrow as fast as possible.
Yet up to 40,000 people gather to get this insight from Punxsutawney Phil each February.
Sacred and secular
Groundhog Day – the only day of the year dedicated to a rodent – illustrates the way sacred and secular themes often weave together.
Today, Groundhog Day is exclusively secular. But it was not always so. Traditionally it was celebrated in Christian churches as Candlemas – candle mass, the blessing of candles for use throughout the year.
Candlemas derives its name from the end of the season of Epiphany, “the coming of the light.”
And that date in turn goes back to Moses, who decreed that giving birth rendered a woman “unclean” for 40 days. Because Jesus is presumed to have been born December 25, his mother’s purification becomes February 2 in our calendar.
Candlemas thus coincides with the Feast of the Purification of the Virgin.
But it also coincides with the ancient Celtic festival of Imbolc, the halfway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox – or rather, it used to coincide, in the old Julian calendar, until Pope Gregory VIII brought in his new improved model in 1582.
Six weeks of winter preceded Imbolc; six weeks of winter would follow until spring arrived officially.
The British Celts tended to rely on hedgehogs or badgers. Europeans looked to bears or wolves.
Northern winter
Regardless of the animal chosen, in northern countries like Canada another six weeks of winter is a virtual certainty. Only in Victoria do daffodils bloom in February. Across most of Canada, trees will not burst into leaf until late April; gardeners rarely risk planting seeds outdoors until May.
Canada’s most northerly civilian community is Grise Fiord on Ellesmere Island. Grise Fiord’s Inuit name, Aujuittuq, means “place that never thaws.”
Grise Fiord has no groundhogs. But if it did, they would have to predict an early spring. They could never see their shadow. The sun doesn’t rise at all on February 2.
So much for rodent reliability!
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Copyright © 2009 by Jim Taylor. Non-profit use in congregations and study groups permitted; all other rights reserved.
Please tell your friends about these columns. To send comments, to subscribe or to unsubscribe, or to request permission to reprint, write jimt@quixotic.ca Be sure to include Soft Edges or Sharp Edges in the subject line, so my spam filter doesn’t delete your message.
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Your Turn
The column on “Dirty words” in dictionaries didn’t produce as much mail, but it was universally thoughtful. Thank you.
Cliff Boldt caught the inference in a line I had written: “Makes you wonder where the complaining parent got her research from, doesn’t it?”
“That was my exact question,” wrote Cliff. “How did the parent know? Did the parent look it up herself? Why would she look for that particular word? What other particular words was she looking for?”
I probably should add a little explanation. In an earlier phase of my life, I came in on the receiving end of a propaganda campaign. I found that few of the people calling angrily had actually read the article or issue they ranted about – they had merely read excerpts, circulated by a militant group trying to stir up hostility. I suspect the same process here.
My column prompted Deborah Lawson of Edmonton to unburden herself of thoughts that had obviously been rumbling around for some time. “Until very recently,” she wrote, “I neither subscribed to a newspaper nor listened regularly to news on the radio or television. The reason? Because I find it so difficult live with the outrage and helplessness I feel when I’m exposed on a daily basis to the greed and hypocrisy of the powerful in this world. Powerful governments, corporations, and/or people have the opportunity to help countries such as Haiti, but instead they victimize them to ensure the continued flow of wealth into their own well-protected pockets.
“Outrage. It’s a difficult and ultimately pointless emotion. Hopelessness. It’s paralyzing. So many things bring the feelings of outrage and helplessness to the surface. Haiti is just the current and most poignant example.
“On a more personal level, I’m feeling utterly helpless about my ability to influence my own government.”
Deborah’s particular beef is another subject – the ability of pharmaceutical companies to lead the health industry around by the nose, while attacking natural health products. “I have signed petitions, participated in peaceful public demonstrations, and written to my MP, the opposition members who shadow the Health portfolio, the leaders of all three major political parties and the Prime Minister himself. I am doing everything I can to fight this intrusion into what should be my own domain, and yet the government keeps recycling the same poisonous legislation proposals… Obviously, the government is listening to somebody. Equally obviously, it is not me.”
Someone who identified himself only as Frank asked, “And what did Grandma say when the grandchild asked her what ‘nookie’ meant?”
By the time Grandma stopped laughing, granddaughter had already gone to bed!
Nancy Spiers contributed a recollection: “I remember (way back in high school) my girl friends slipping a book from hand-to-hand and whispering, ‘It’s got dirty words and s-e-x in it!’
“That book was ‘Valley of the Dolls’ shelved in my mother’s library, to which I had unrestricted access (from childhood!). I recall laughing at my friends, telling them that I could read that book anytime I wanted…
“Anything she didn’t want me to read was shelved at eye level; books she thought I might not be interested in, but wanted me to read, were on the top shelf — and, she made it a point to let me know they were there!
“I received my first dictionary at the age of 7 — still have it — and it had all the ‘dirty’ words in it! I grew up to be a journalist, columnist, and preacher.”
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About My Books
Over the years, I think I have written (or ghostwritten) about 17 books. Several of them (mercifully) are no longer available from any source. But here’s a listing of those that are still available. The ones marked “WLB”, you can order from Wood Lake Books, either on-line at http://www.woodlakebooks.com, or call Wood Lake Books directly at 1-800-663-2775 in Canada, 1-800-654-5129 (Pilgrim Press) in the U.S. The ones marked “JT only” are now available only directly from me — as collector’s items, I price them all at $25 Cdn.
- Everyday God: Insights from the Ordinary
- Worlds in One
- Chance
- Seeing the Mystery: Exploring Christian Faith through the Eyes of Artists,
- Surviving Death
- Everyday Psalms
- Everyday Parables
- Letters to Stephen
- A New Understanding of Virtue and Vice
- Precious Days and Practical Love: Caring for an Aging Parent
- for Beginners
- Spirituality of Pets
(1981 and 2005, WLB, $19.95)
(1985, JT only)
(1989, JT only)
(1990, with William S. Taylor, JT only)
(1993, JT only)
(1994 and 2005, WLB, $19.95)
(1995 and 2005, WLB, $19.95)
(1996, WLB, $17.95)
(1997, WLB, $19.95)
(1999, WLB, $19.95)
(2001, WLB, $11.95)
(2006, WLB, $39)
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TECHNICAL STUFF
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You can access several years of archived columns at http://edges.Canadahomepage.net.
I write a second column each Wednesday, called Soft Edges, which deals somewhat more gently with issues of life and faith. (It’s also included in Ralph Milton’s e-newsletter Rumors.) To sign up for Soft Edges, write to me directly, at the addresses above, or send a note to softedges-subscribe@quixotic.ca
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PROMOTION STUFF…
If you know someone else who might like to receive this column regularly via e-mail, send a request to jimt@quixotic.ca. Or, if you wish, forward them a copy of this column. But please put your name on it, so they don’t think I’m sending out spam.
For a lighter look at life, faith, and the lectionary, I recommend my friend Ralph Milton’s weekly e-newsletter Rumors. You can subscribe to it by sending a note to ralphmilton@woodlake.com.
For other web links worth pursuing, try
- Charlene Fairchild’s United Online site,
- David Keating’s “SeemslikeGod” page
- The Canadian Centre for Progressive Christianity home page
- Dan Strizek’s Gathering Place for Creation Spirituality
- Alva Wood’s satiric stories about incompetent bureaucrats and prejudiced attitudes in a small town are not terribly religious, but they are fun; write alvawood@gmail.com to get onto her mailing list.
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